The 98th Academy Awards ceremony – featuring Australian acting nominees Rose Byrne and Jacob Elordi – airs 10am AEDT 16 March on Channel 7 and 7 Plus.
Will it be one Oscar after another for Paul Thomas Anderson’s propulsive comedy-thriller One Battle After Another, or could we be looking at a sensational Sinners sweep? Here are our thoughts.
Oscars predictions 2026 – quick links
Best Picture
Nominees
- Bugonia
- F1
- Frankenstein
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- One Battle After Another
- The Secret Agent
- Sentimental Value
- Sinners
- Train Dreams
Our prediction
It has been a historic year for Warner Bros Pictures. At the same time its parent company is finalising a deal for a troubling merger, the studio is juggling the campaigns of both of the Best Picture frontrunners. While the future of Warner Bros, and the effect the takeover will have on the wider film and media landscape, is uncertain, the Oscars present an opportunity to celebrate the films that headed a banner year.
First, with 13 nominations, there’s Paul Thomas Anderson’s riveting Thomas Pynchon adaptation One Battle After Another. Co-led by talented newcomer Chase Infiniti and a superb Leonardo DiCaprio, this darkly comedic action-thriller has been widely embraced by critics and industry awards alike, making it the clear favourite for the major prize at the Oscars.
Not to be discounted, however, is Ryan Coogler’s musical vampire horror blockbuster Sinners. Starring Michael B Jordan as part of an ensemble that won the top prize at the Actor Awards (formerly the Screen Actors Guild Awards), Sinners has been recognised with an extraordinary 16 nominations, an all-time Oscars record.
ScreenHub: Where to stream, rent & buy the Academy Awards’ hottest film nominees
Outside of these two juggernauts, the list of 2026 Best Picture nominees is quite solid, with a handful of genuine standouts.
Hamnet, Chloé Zhao’s shattering, fictionalised account of the personal lives of William Shakespeare and his wife Anne (here called Agnes), received eight Oscar nominations and was awarded Best Motion Picture Drama at the Golden Globes. (One Battle After Another took home Best Musical or Comedy at the same ceremony.)
Meanwhile, Joachim Trier’s astute and affecting family portrait Sentimental Value, and Josh Safdie’s wildly entertaining character study Marty Supreme, were acknowledged with nine Oscar nominations apiece. Kleber Mendonça Filho’s vivid Cannes Film Festival awardee The Secret Agent was recognised in four categories.
Also among this year’s Best Picture nominees are two Netflix releases: Guillermo del Toro’s lavish literary adaptation Frankenstein, starring 28-year-old Australian Jacob Elordi in the titular role; and Clint Bentley’s Terrence Malick inspired Train Dreams, featuring Nick Cave’s Best Original Song nominee.
Rounding out the category is Apple’s flashy sports drama F1, and Bugonia, Yorgos Lanthimos’ English language remake of the audacious black comedy Save the Green Planet.
Frontrunner: One Battle After Another
Likeliest spoiler: Sinners
ScreenHub: One Battle After Another review – a truly killer action thriller ★★★★★
Best Director
Nominees
- Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
- Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
- Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
- Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
- Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Our prediction
In the Academy’s 98-year history, there have been more than 100 men who have received Best Director nominations on two or more occasions. As of this year, the complete list of women who have been nominated for Best Director more than once comprises two individuals: Jane Campion (for The Piano and The Power of the Dog) and Chloé Zhao (for Nomadland and Hamnet).
It is gratifying to see Zhao celebrated for her profoundly sensitive approach to direction, even if some have branded her film an awards season villain simply for contending alongside the year’s perceived central players, One Battle After Another and Sinners.
Hamnet is the only film directed by a woman in the Best Picture line-up, however, Kaouther Ben Hania’s docudrama The Voice of Hind Rajab, which recounts the horrific killing of a five-year-old Palestinian girl, is nominated for Best International Film.
Generally speaking, there is quite a close correlation between Best Picture and Best Director. As such, it is entirely conceivable that Ryan Coogler could triumph over firm favourite Paul Thomas Anderson if Sinners surges past One Battle After Another across the board.
Frontrunner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Likeliest spoiler: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
ScreenHub: Sinners review – a barn burnin’, foot stompin’, neck chompin’ good time ★★★★★
Best Actress
Nominees
- Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
- Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
- Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
- Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
- Emma Stone, Bugonia
Our prediction
The only acting category this year to have a nominee winning every so-called ‘precursor’ award – that is, the Actor Awards, the BAFTAs, the Critics’ Choice Awards and the Golden Globes – this year’s Oscar for Best Actress is relatively straightforward to predict.
While Australian national treasure Rose Byrne has garnered much adulation for her visceral performance in Mary Bronstein’s thorny motherhood drama If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, it is the wonderful Irish actress Jessie Buckley, star of Hamnet, who is expected to take home the Oscar.
Also recognised in this category is Renate Reinsve for her towering performance in Sentimental Value; Kate Hudson for the surprisingly decent musical biopic Song Sung Blue; and five-time acting nominee Emma Stone, who also served as producer on Bugonia.
Frontrunner: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
ScreenHub: Hamnet review – not a dry eye in the house ★★★★⯪
Best Actor
Nominees
- Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
- Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
- Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
- Michael B Jordan, Sinners
- Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Our prediction
Whether he’s winning awards or losing them, Timothée Chalamet has a tendency to be the major story of the season every time he’s nominated. At 30 years of age, he is the youngest three-time Best Actor nominee since Marlon Brando.
Marty Supreme, which Chalamet also produced, hinges on his exhilarating performance. Up until the BAFTAs, it looked to be the film that would see him sweep the precursors on his way to his first Oscars win.
However, now that the BAFTA has instead been awarded to I Swear’s Robert Aramayo (eligible for an Oscar nomination in 2027) and, most significantly, the Actor award has gone the way of Sinners star Michael B Jordan, it feels like the momentum has shifted.
Jordan, who has been a key collaborator of Coogler’s since the director’s debut Fruitvale Station (2013), is impressive in his double role in Sinners. Given the Academy’s clear regard for Sinners, his winning would certainly make sense.
Also thought to be in contention for the win is The Secret Agent’s Wagner Moura, who has made history as the first Brazilian nominee in this category. Rounding out Best Actor is Leonardo DiCaprio, now a seven-time acting nominee, and Ethan Hawke, who was previously nominated twice for Best Supporting Actor and twice for Best Adapted Screenplay.
Frontrunner: Michael B Jordan, Sinners
Likeliest spoiler: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
ScreenHub: Marty Supreme review – propulsive, frenetic if lightweight fun ★★★★⯪
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees
- Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
- Amy Madigan, Weapons
- Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
- Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Our prediction
It has been 40 years since Amy Madigan received her first Best Supporting Actress nomination (for 1985’s Twice in a Lifetime). For her commanding performance in Zach Cregger’s Weapons, Madigan has earned a second nod, in doing so breaking the record for the longest gap between two nominations for an actress. Wins at both the Critics’ Choice and Actor Awards have made her a marginal favourite at the Oscars.
Also thought to be in close contention is Teyana Taylor – a Golden Globe winner for her explosive and devastating turn in One Battle After Another – and Wunmi Mosaku who was awarded the BAFTA for her stirring role in Sinners.
Joining Madigan, Taylor and Mosaku in this category are two Sentimental Value stars: Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas. While the always delightful Fanning achieves a delicate balance with her performance, Lilleaas is truly revelatory. Were there to be a surprise upset in this category, she would make for an incredibly deserving winner.
Frontrunner: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Likeliest spoiler: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another, or Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees
- Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
- Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
- Delroy Lindo, Sinners
- Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
- Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Our prediction
Having already taken Best Supporting Actor at both the BAFTAs and the Actor Awards, two-time Academy Award winner Sean Penn is the odds-on favourite for this category at the Oscars.
Penn is nominated alongside his One Battle After Another co-star Benicio del Toro – who is incredibly likeable and quotable as the heroic sensei Sergio St Carlos in the film – as well as the great Delroy Lindo for Sinners and the aforementioned Jacob Elordi.
Finally, there’s Stellan Skarsgård, recognised for his career defining performance in Sentimental Value. Not only is this the 74-year-old actor’s first Oscar nomination, it’s the first time this category has ever included a nominee from an international, non-English language film.
Frontrunner: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Likeliest Spoiler: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees
- Blue Moon, Robert Kaplow
- It Was Just an Accident, Jafar Panahi in collaboration with Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin and Mehdi Mahmoudian
- Marty Supreme, Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
- Sentimental Value,Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
- Sinners, Ryan Coogler
Our prediction
While Oscars voters have also demonstrated widespread support for Sentimental Value and Marty Supreme, Sinners seems the clear consensus choice for Best Original Screenplay.
Already this awards season, Ryan Coogler has made history, becoming the first Black writer to win the BAFTA for Best Original Screenplay. At the Oscars, he could become just the second Black artist to take home Best Original Screenplay, following Jordan Peele for Get Out.
Also of note in this category is Jafar Panahi’s gripping and poignant Palme d’Or winning morality play It Was Just an Accident, which was disappointingly excluded from Best Picture and Best Director.
Frontrunner: Sinners
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees
- Bugonia, Will Tracy (based on the film Save the Green Planet! by Jang Joon-hwan)
- Frankenstein, Guillermo del Toro (based on the novel by Mary Shelley)
- Hamnet, Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell (based on the novel by Maggie O’Farrell)
- One Battle After Another, Paul Thomas Anderson (based on the novel Vineland by Thomas Pynchon)
- Train Dreams, Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar (based on the novella by Denis Johnson)
Our prediction
Paul Thomas Anderson, who over his decades-spanning career has been nominated for an impressive 14 Academy Awards – including six nods for screenwriting – is strongly favoured to get his first ever win when the Best Adapted Screenplay category rolls around.
Undoubtedly, it would be a well-deserved honour for the writer-director of some of the most beloved Hollywood films of the last 30 years.
Frontrunner: One Battle After Another
ScreenHub: Oscars 2026 – where to stream, rent & buy the Academy Awards’ hottest film nominees
